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REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL

ENGAGEMENT OF A CONSULTANT FOR  KEY POPULATION SIZE ESTIMATE DATA TRIANGULATION IN NIGERIA

March, 2026

1. Background and Context

Nigeria continues to make significant progress in its HIV response; however, Key Populations (KPs) including Female Sex Workers (FSW), Men who have Sex with Men (MSM), People Who Inject Drugs (PWID), and Transgender (TG) persons remain disproportionately affected by HIV. Effective planning, equitable resource allocation, realistic target setting, and program performance monitoring depend heavily on accurate and reliable estimates of the sizes of these populations.

Over the years, Nigeria has conducted multiple KP Size Estimation (KPSE) studies using methodologies such as Programmatic Mapping, Capture–Recapture, Network Scale-Up Method (NSUM), and other multiplier approaches. While these efforts have generated valuable data, the use of different methodologies has resulted in varying and sometimes inconsistent estimates at national and sub-national levels. These discrepancies create challenges for national reporting, program planning, donor alignment, and service coverage assessment.

To strengthen the evidence base for decision-making, a structured triangulation and harmonization process is required. The triangulation exercise will consolidate existing KPSE data using recognized analytical approaches (including the Anchored Multiplier Calculator – AMC) to generate unified and credible national and sub-national size estimates for use across Nigeria’s HIV response.

2. Rationale for the Assignment

The availability of multiple KP size estimates has created inconsistencies in planning assumptions, resource allocation, and performance reporting across stakeholders. Without harmonized estimates:

• HIV program coverage cannot be accurately measured.
• Targets may be overestimated or underestimated.
• Funding allocation may not reflect true service needs.
• National and donor reporting may lack consistency.

The triangulation will support the National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), policymakers, donors, and program implementers to make evidence-based decisions, optimize resource allocation, and improve the effectiveness of HIV interventions for key populations.

3. Scope of Work and Detailed Tasks

The consultant will be engaged for 12 work days, structured as follows:

Phase 1: Desk Review and Data Extraction (4 Work Days)

Tasks:

• Review all available KPSE reports, datasets, and technical documents.
• Extract relevant state and national estimates for FSW, MSM, PWID, and TG populations.
• Assess methodologies used, assumptions, limitations, and overlaps.
• Identify data gaps and inconsistencies.
• Prepare a summary matrix of all available estimates by state, population group, and methodology.
• Develop workshop materials, triangulation templates, and AMC input sheets.

Deliverable of Phase 1:

• Inception brief summarizing review findings and triangulation plan.
• Consolidated KPSE data extraction matrix.
• Draft workshop agenda and facilitation materials.

Phase 2: Facilitation of KPSE Triangulation Workshop (4 Working Days)

Tasks:

• Facilitate a national technical triangulation workshop.
• Present findings from desk review and data synthesis.
• Guide stakeholders through application of the Anchored Multiplier Calculator (AMC) and other triangulation approaches.
• Lead technical discussions to reconcile differences in estimates.
• Document assumptions, adjustments, and consensus decisions.
• Support validation of harmonized estimates.

Deliverable of Phase 2:

• Harmonized state and national KP size estimates (draft).
• Workshop proceedings report (assumptions, consensus decisions).
• Updated triangulation datasets.

Phase 3: Report Writing and Final Product Development (4 Working Days)

Tasks:

• Analyze workshop outputs and finalize triangulated estimates.
• Prepare comprehensive technical report detailing methodology, assumptions, results, and limitations.
• Provide recommendations for use of unified KPSE data in planning and reporting.
• Develop summary briefs and data tables for programmatic use.
• Incorporate stakeholder feedback and finalize report.

Deliverable of Phase 3:

• Final KPSE Triangulation Technical Report.
• Clean harmonized dataset (Excel format).
• Executive summary brief (5–7 pages).
• Presentation slides for dissemination.

4. Required Qualifications and Experience

• Advanced degree (Master’s or PhD) in Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Public Health, Demography, or related field. 30 MARKS
• At least 7–10 years of experience in HIV surveillance, epidemiology, or population size estimation.- 30 Marks
• Demonstrated expertise with evidence (publication, journal or any supporting document) in KP size estimation methodologies (e.g., mapping, capture–recapture, multiplier methods, NSUM). 10 Marks
• Proven experience using triangulation tools (Provide evidence on tools used)-10 Marks
• Detailed workplan and Methodology- 20 Marks
• Experience working with national HIV programs, preferably in Nigeria or similar contexts.
• Strong analytical and quantitative data management skills.

Scoring Criteria for  Evaluation of consultant

5. Payment Terms

The consultant will be paid a lump sum professional fee covering the full 12 work days of consultancy services upon submission of all agreed deliverables. Payment shall be subject to satisfactory performance and acceptance of deliverables in accordance with the terms of this engagement.

6. Ethical Considerations and Data Confidentiality

The consultant shall:

• Adhere strictly to ethical standards for handling sensitive key population data.
• Maintain confidentiality of all datasets and documents accessed.
• Use data solely for the purpose of this assignment.
• Ensure no unauthorized sharing of state-level or population-specific estimates.
• Apply data protection principles in line with national and international standards.
• Disclose any potential conflict of interest prior to engagement.

7.0Duration of Assignment

• The consultant will be engaged for Twelve (12) work days as follows;

7.0 Reporting and Supervision

The National Consultant will report to the Director, RM&E, NACA through the Head of Survey & Surveillance division. Regular updates and progress reports will be required throughout the assignment.

8.0 Selection Method: Individual Consultant Qualification selection Method (QBS)

9.0 .Location of Consultancy– Abuja

Detailed RFP– The link is provided below:

Documents for Submission:

While submitting the Technical Proposal, the Applicant shall, in particular, ensure to attach the following:

• Methodology, Workplan,
• Copies of all certificates for all qualifications indicated in the CV.
• Evidence of Relevant Experience such as contracts or letters of award or job completion certificates and relevant supporting document.
• Recent CV
• Signed Cover Letter

The financial proposal shall specify a total lump sum amount in Naira.

GUIDELINE FOR SUBMISSION AND OPENING OF DOCUMENTS

The detailed Proposal must be in English Language and submitted in two (2) hard copies each (one original & two copies) of the requested documents and proposal. The documents shall then be enclosed and sealed in one (1) single outer envelope, and clearly marked at the topmost right corner “ENGAGEMENT OF A CONSULTANT FOR  KEY POPULATION SIZE ESTIMATE DATA TRIANGULATION IN NIGERIA” and the Name, Address, Email and Phone Number of the Consultant boldly written at the back of the envelope, with acknowledgement to NACA office at the address below.

Deadline for Submission: The deadline for the submission of proposal should not be later than Tuesday 12 noon of 8^th April,2026. The submission(s) received will be opened immediately after closing at NACA Conference Room in the presence of consultants that choose to attend.

ADDRESS FOR INFORMATION AND SUBMISSION OF PROPOSALS

Attention:

Head Procurement

National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA) 

Ground Floor Room 1.08

No. 3 Zinguinchor Street, Beside AEDC Office, Wuse zone 4, Abuja

GLOBAL FUND CODE OF CONDUCT

You shall get acquainted with the global fund code of conduct for consultants using this link below: https://www.theglobalfund.org/media/3275/corporate_codeofconductforconsultants_policy_en.pdf

Accepting this invitation shall serve as an acknowledgement and agreement to abide by the Global Fund Code of Conduct for Consultants.

NOTES/DISCLAIMER

1. Late submissions will not be accepted.
2. NACA shall verify any or all documents and claims made by applicants and will disqualify consultants with falsified documents and claims.
3. If it is determined that submitted documents and claims have been falsified, the consultant may face prosecution in a court of Law.
4. NACA shall not be held responsible for any disqualified proposal as a result of any omission or deletion relating to the submission guidelines.
5. This advertisement shall not be construe a contract to any Consultant, nor shall it entitle any Consultant submitting documents to claim any indemnity from NACA.
6. NACA is not bound to shortlist any Consultant, and reserves the right to annul the bidding process at any time without incurring any liabilities or providing reason.

Signed

Management.

 B. Format of Curriculum Vitae (CV)

Name :         

Complete address :

Profession :   

Date of Birth :         

Years of professional experience :                                        Nationality :        

Membership in Professional Societies :       

Detailed Tasks Assigned :    

Key Qualifications :

[Give an outline of your experience and training most pertinent to tasks on assignment.  Describe degree of responsibility you held on relevant previous assignments and give dates and locations.  One page should be sufficient.]

Education :

[Summarize college/university and other specialized education, giving names of schools, dates attended, and degrees obtained.   A page or less should be sufficient.]

Employment Record :

[Starting with present position, list in reverse order every employment held.  List all positions held since graduation, giving dates, names of employing organizations, titles of positions held, and locations of assignments.  For experience in last ten years, also give types of activities performed and client references, where appropriate.  Use about two pages.]

Languages :

[For each language indicate proficiency: excellent, good, fair, or poor in speaking, reading, and writing.]

Certification :

      I, the undersigned, certify that to the best of my knowledge and belief, these data correctly describe me, my qualifications, and my experience.

                                                                                       Date :      

[Signature of consultant ]                                                            Day/Month/Year

Full Name of Candidate :

 C. Proposal

[Location, Date]

To : [Name and address of Procuring Entity]

Mr/Mrs. :

      I, the undersigned, offer to provide the consulting services for [Title of consulting services] in accordance with your Letter of Invitation dated [Date]. 

      My fees are [net of taxes, estimated at…, as applicable]

      I hereby submit my Proposal, which includes this Technical and Financial Proposal.

      I understand that you are not bound to accept any Proposal you receive.

      I remain,

Yours Truly,

Signature

Name of the Consultant :

Address :

D. Observations and suggestions of the candidate consultant on the terms of reference

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

 List of Annexes

      Annex A : Cost Estimate of Services, and Schedule of Rates.

      Annex B : Consultants Reporting Requirements.

      Annex C : Evaluation Criteria.

Annex A

Cost Estimate of Services

      (1) Remuneration

                        Rate /Days                       Number of Days    (12Days)        Total (currency)

                        in (currency)

      (2) Reimbursables

                                                    Rate                   Units/Days                         Total

      (

      TOTAL COST                        

ACTIVITY SCHEDULE (Consultant to modify accordingly)

Activity (Work)                                                   periods

                              1st      2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th   8th   9th   10th 11th 12th    

Annex C

EVALUATION CRITERIA

The Criteria, sub-criteria, and point system for the evaluation of the Technical Proposals are:

                                                                                              Points

(i)   Specific experience of the Consultant relevant to the assignment: 70

1)  Adequacy for the assignment inclusive of methodology (10Marks), Workplan (10Marks) and Experience/understanding (50Marks)          

(ii)   Key professional qualifications and competence for the assignment: 30

1)  General qualifications                         30

                                   Total points for criterion (I & ii):           100